The amount of bitcoin on exchanges is at its lowest in three years, suggesting that investors are not preparing to sell. Ethereum is also at a two-year low for balances on exchanges.
Data from cryptocurrency market data platform Glassnode shows that the bitcoin exchange balance is at its lowest level in three years. The balance held in exchanges is at 2.46 million BTC as of late October 2021. Compared to Q2 2021, when the exchange balance was at over 2.47 million BTC, that potentially indicates some bullish signs for the market.
Historically, bitcoin balances have been low when the market has been on the cusp of a good run — or at least strong belief in its current valuation. Bitcoin exchange balances tend to rise when the market is about to see an increased sell-off period because investors load up their bitcoin on exchanges.
The last time the exchange balance was so low was in December 2018. The market did stagnate in the months following that period, before eventually seeing another massive bull run that took it to new all-time highs. Long-term bitcoin holders appear to be accumulating as well, according to Kraken, which further lends credence to the idea of growth in the near future.
Ethereum is also experiencing a similar situation. ETH balances on exchanges are at a two-year low of 14.4 million ETH, which, again, bodes well for the market.
The market appears to be in a good position, consolidating at current prices levels. At over $60,000 and $4,200 respectively, BTC and ETH have risen sharply since the end of September 2021, where both were approximately at $42,000 and $2,900.
Heading into Q4 2021, where does bitcoin stand?
There have been numerous models in the past that have predicted some high bitcoin valuations by the end of 2021. One of the most notable of these is the PlanB Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, which predicted a target of $135,000 by the year’s end in the worst case. While the price of BTC isn’t quite there, it’s still not too far off with its current valuation of over $62,000.
Slightly longer prediction periods, like that put forward by Tim Draper, have bitcoin’s price target at $250,000 by 2023. But the market is fickle and tends to move at a whim — but seemingly always forward.
Bitcoin, and the market in general, tends to rise in quick bursts, as bullish prices in the past have shown. It could very well be that BTC will experience a sudden bull rally to reach that figure. There is no way of being certain, but general indicators like that of bitcoin on exchanges seem to suggest that the market could be in a good growth period.
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